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KMID : 0613820210310090840
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Journal of Life Science
2021 Volume.31 No. 9 p.840 ~ p.848
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Estimation of Annual Trends and Environmental Effects on the Racing Records of Jeju Horses
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Lee Jong-An
Lee Soo-Hyun
Lee Jae-Gu
Kim Nam-Young
Choi Jae-Young
Shin Sang-Min
Choi Jung-Woo
Cho In-Cheol
Yang Byoung-Chul
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Abstract
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This study was conducted to estimate annual trends and the environmental effects in the racing records of Jeju horses. The Korean Racing Authority (KRA) collected 48,645 observations for 2,167 Jeju horses from 2002 to 2019. Racing records were preprocessed to eliminate errors that occur during the data collection. Racing times were adjusted for comparison between race distances. A stepwise Akaike information criterion (AIC) variable selection method was applied to select appropriate environment variables affecting racing records. The annual improvement of the race time was -0.242 seconds. The model with the lowest AIC value was established when variables were selected in the following order: year, budam classification, jockey ranking, trainer ranking, track condition, weather, age, and gender. The most suitable model was constructed when the jockey ranking and age variables were considered as random effects. Our findings have potential for application as basic data when building models for evaluating genetic abilities of Jeju horses.
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KEYWORD
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Annual trend, environmental effect, Jeju horse, racing record, stepwise variable selection
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